How to figure out the latest technological surge.
Beginning in 2018, a new word was added to Silicon Valley vocabulary: "techlash", or "risk of consumer and regulatory revolt against big technology. At present, this threat is considered to be empty. While regulators are discussing new rules and public figures are concerned about privacy, the last 12 months have seen a rapid increase in shares of the five largest U.S. technology firms, which have grown by 52%. The total value of these firms has increased by almost $2 trillion, and it is safe to say that this is roughly equivalent to the total market in Germany. Four out of five - Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft - are now worth over $1trn. (Facebook only costs $620 billion) For all this talk of techlash, fund managers in Boston, London and Singapore shrug their shoulders and move on. According to their calculations, nothing can stop these firms, which are destined to earn untold wealth.

This spike in the price of shares of technical giants leads to two fears. One of them is whether investors have inflated the speculative bubble. Five companies worth $5.6 trillion account for almost one-fifth of the S&P 500 index. Recall that 20 years ago, the market was so concentrated before the collapse, which triggered a massive recession. The second, opposite side is that investors may be right. Huge estimates from major IT companies suggest that their profits will double or so in the next decade, causing much greater economic turmoil in rich countries and an alarming concentration of economic and political power.