The downturn this time will be much deeper. In 2009, during the global financial crisis, world GDP fell by only -0.1%, as emerging economies continued to expand. This time the IMF reckons that a large share of countries—accounting for about 70% of global GDP in purchasing-power-parity terms—will fall into recession. Output in advanced economies is expected to shrink by 6.1% in 2020; in poorer countries, it is forecast to fall by 1%.
To mitigate the damage, rich countries around the world have enacted huge stimulus packages. Poorer ones have done less—not helped by the flood of capital that has gushed out of their financial systems in recent weeks as investors have sought the safety of rich-world assets. A central question is whether governments have done enough to ensure a robust recovery once economies start to reopen. Expect central bankers and finance ministers to ponder precisely this at pow-wows of the G20 and IMF, which are to be held virtually later this week.